Experts say this year’s Atlantic hurricane season is bound to be more active than previous seasons due to record-high ocean temperatures. Previously, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration predicted near-normal storm activity (12-17 storms).
However, the agency has changed its tune, predicting above-normal storms characterized by 14-21 storms, with half being full-blown hurricanes. As of September, the Atlantic Coast had experienced 14 named storms, including 8 tropical storms and 6 hurricanes.
According to the National Hurricane Center, 14 storms don’t usually occur until November 19, and six hurricanes aren’t recorded until October 19. As such, people living in hurricane-prone areas must prepare adequately. A detailed overview of the Atlantic hurricane season 2023 can help you make informed decisions.
When is Atlantic Hurricane Season 2023?
The Atlantic Hurricane season starts on June 1 and ends on November 30, but some areas experience tropical cyclone activity before and after these dates. The peak hurricane period begins on September 10, with the highest activity between mid-August and mid-October.
When we talk about an Atlantic hurricane, we refer to a tropical cyclone with wind speeds of 7 mph or higher. It transforms into a major storm when the cyclone develops winds of up to 111 mph, similar to Category 3, 4, or 5 hurricanes.
According to a 30-year climate history, the first named storm develops in mid-late June; the first hurricane forms in early to mid-August, and the first significant hurricane forms in late August or early September.
With 14 named storms, including 6 hurricanes and 8 tropical storms recorded this year, the 2023 hurricane season will likely be the most active year in history. The primary reason for the heightened hurricane activity is the increasing temperature of ocean waters due to climatic change.
Scientists found that the June-July sea surface temperature in the central development region of the North Atlantic is experiencing unusually high temperatures, i.e., highs of 1.23 degrees centigrade, which is above average.
As a result, forecasters warned about explosive tropical development and a more active hurricane season. And while it's an El Nino year, its effects don’t seem to disrupt the oncoming hurricanes and storms. Normally, El Nino produces high shear-upper-level winds that rip hurricanes and storms apart. In fact, if it weren't for the El Nino season, we’d probably experience more storms and hurricanes, possibly to the tune of 200%.
Even so, the warm ocean water will likely counter El Nino's effects on hurricanes, fueling their growth. Scientists assert that the entire basin is hotter than in other similar years like 2005 and 2010, increasing the risk of hurricanes and storms.
Coupled with the low wind shear and extreme ocean heat, the conditions are ripe for more storms to form. It explains why recent hurricanes like Lee, Idalia, and Franklin began and restrengthened.
Experts also cite climate change as another reason for the increasing hurricanes. Climate changes affect the amount of rain the storms can carry. With the weather warmer by the day, the air will likely hold more moisture, so named storms can store and produce above-normal rainfall.
It explains why the 2017 Hurricane Harvey was accompanied by more than 40 inches of precipitation in less than 48 hours. Researchers have also found that storms are slowing down, sitting over land or sea for extended periods.
This phenomenon explains why storms come with unusually high amounts of rainfall. When a storm slows over an ocean, sea, or other form of water body, the amount of moisture it absorbs increases.
Similarly, precipitation over an area increases when a storm brews over land. It explains the high amount of rainfall in Hope Town during the 2019 Hurricane Dorian. Here’s a lineup of all the named storms and hurricanes expected in 2023:
- Cindy
- Gert
- Arlene
- Jose
- Don
- Katia
- Emily
- Harold
- Whitney
- Bret
- Vince
- Tammy
- Nigel
- Ophelia
- Philippe
- Sean
- Rina
What to Expect as Hurricane Season Enters
We’re at the zenith of the hurricane season, expecting more hurricane activity around the Atlantic. So far, there have been 6 hurricanes (of which three were Category 3+ hurricanes) and 17 named storms.
Tropical Storm Rina, the 17th named storm, is the most recent. The National Hurricane Center predicts it will have sustained winds of 50 mph in the northern region of Leeward Islands.
However, its path and lifespan depend on its interaction with Tropical Storm Philippe. Philippe started with peak winds of 50 mph and strengthened gradually as it turned to the west and the north.
Being an incredibly elongated storm, forecasters find predicting its position challenging.
Although Tropical Storm Rina came off stronger than expected, it’s likely to weaken over time and move to the northwestern region at 12 m.p.h. Forecasters predict it will remain a tropical storm in the first week of October, but some regional hurricane models show it could intensify in the next few days.
This is due to its uncertain interaction with Philippe and consistent wind shear. Tropical Storm Philippe's and Storm Rina’s interaction is called a binary interaction, a pretty uncommon phenomenon that makes it challenging to predict either storm's directions.
On the one hand, the storms can gravitate to each other, reaching a common point; on the other hand, they spin around each other before following their paths. Rarely do they merge to produce one strong storm. These unlikely occurrences make it difficult for forecasters to predict Phillippe’s and Rina’s outcomes. In fact, there are no coastal warnings or watches made to this effect.
These storms followed Hurricane Jose closely, which was predicted to be a pipsqueak storm. However, it defied weather forecasts and strengthened quickly, developing into an eye-like form overnight.
According to the Hurricane Center, its wind speed was 60 mph but could have been stronger. While the short-lived storm posed little threat to land, experts say it’s a perfect example of the 2023 hurricane season, where storms strengthen quickly.
Ahead of Hurricane Jose was Hurricane Franklin, the first major hurricane of the 2023 Hurricane Atlantic season. It started on late Monday morning of 28th August as a storm 480 miles southwest of Bermuda.
The storm peaked quickly, attaining sustained winds of 150 mph, and by late Friday, it was 790 miles northeast of Bermuda, moving at 17 m.p.h. Idalia is another storm that strengthened into a hurricane around the Atlantic waters in the eastern region of North Carolina. It began as a tropical depression in the northwestern part of the Caribbean before heading to the Gulf.
The storm quickly became a Category 4 hurricane with sustained winds of 130 mph before landfall near Keaton Beach as a Category 3. It still had destructive winds with a speed of 125 mph, which led to 250,000 power outages.
What Areas Will Be Most Affected by Hurricanes?
Hurricanes have become a common phenomenon in the United States. They’re more devastating every year, making hurricanes Irma, Michael, and Harvey a shadow of the Atlantic hurricane season.
Knowing areas more likely to experience hurricanes helps in planning and preparation. Florida is one hurricane-prone state as it sits on the coasts of the Atlantic, but many more states are likely to experience hurricanes. Here’s a roundup of some of them, along with the number of storms that have occurred in the region:
- Texas: 64+ hurricanes
- North Carolina: 55+ hurricanes
- South Carolina: 30+ hurricanes
- Massachusetts: 12+ hurricanes
- Mississippi: 19+ hurricanes
- Alabama: 24+ hurricanes
- Georgia: 22+ hurricanes
- Louisiana: 54+ hurricanes
- New York: 15+ hurricanes
How to Prepare for a Hurricane
Adequate preparation is critical ahead of a hurricane season. Here are some tips:
Have an Evacuation Plan
People living along the coast of the Atlantic must have an evacuation plan if the hurricane hits their homes. While local governments provide instructions to keep residents safe, having the nearest evacuation centers or shelters in mind is critical.
Have an Emergency Kit on Hand
Every time a hurricane or storm warning is issued, many people rush to the grocery stores and home improvement stores to purchase handy safety items. You don’t have to wait till the last minute.
An emergency kit of prescription drugs, extra batteries, a flashlight, drinking water, non-perishable foods, canned food, and a first-aid kit is necessary. You also want to keep alternative energy sources on hand. A home battery backup like the BLUETTI AC300 + 1*B300 has a power output of 3072 Wh, allowing you to power all your appliances for days.
Find Out the Difference Between a Hurricane Warning and Watch
Understanding the difference between a hurricane watch and a warning helps plan and prepare adequately. A hurricane watch means your area will likely experience hurricane conditions, i.e., 74 mph or higher winds.
Weather experts issue hurricane watches 48 hours before the winds start. A hurricane warning, on the other hand, prepares you for hurricane-force winds in your area. These warnings are issued 36 hours ahead of the hurricane.
Review Insurance Policies
Check your insurance policy to understand what it covers. It should compensate for repairs, rebuilding costs, and replacing belongings. It would help to remove a policy specially designed for disasters, as most homeowners insurance covers hardly cover flood damage.
Conclusion
With the Atlantic Hurricane season at hand, you must keep updated. This article goes a long way in helping you understand the nitty-gritty and how to prepare for the season. Look out for the weather forecast, too, especially if you live in hurricane-prone areas.
